At Apple’s keynote event on Tuesday, it showcased the iPhone 17 lineup, including its new iPhone Air, alongside updated Watches and AirPods.
Investors weighed in on the tech giant’s latest rollout before, during, and after the event, sending the stock downwards by about 4.1% since last Friday. Now, analysts are chiming in with their views on the iPhone maker’s future after its big fall unveiling.
Some were impressed with what they saw.
“The iPhone Air is more ‘Awe Dropping’ than we expected,” Morgan Stanley analysts, including Erik Woodring, said in a Thursday report.
However, a thinner, sleeker iPhone isn’t all analysts noticed from Apple’s Tuesday exhibit. Here’s what they had to say.
Most analysts that shared their reports with Quartz gave a less-than-eager rating for Apple, with two giving the green light to buy.
This falls in line with a recent Bloomberg report that found only 55% of analysts the outlet tracked recommend buying Apple’s stock, based on data it had compiled. The outlet added this is “extremely low” for megacaps.
“While we wait to adjust our estimates until we start tracking iPhone lead times (this Friday), we believe our next 12 month estimates are biased upwards, and therefore would be buyers of weakness after [Wednesday’s] stock underperformance,” Morgan Stanley analysts said.
It holds its overweight rating with a price target of $240 on a calendar-year 2026 earnings per share of $8.30.
Morgan Stanley’s rating is due to Apple’s “largest base of pent up iPhone demand ever (i.e. most elongated replacement cycles), new AI features rolling out (slowly) around the world, and a renewed focus on device form factor changes,” adding it believes “Apple can accelerate iPhone growth starting in FY26, before replacement cycles contract in the 2 years thereafter.”
“Longer-term, investments in AI, payments, cloud, health, and home, and long runway to grow spend per user from $1/day today are key arguments for sustained long-term growth and value creation,” it continued.
Wedbush analysts, including the firm’s global head of technology research Daniel Ives, gave Apple an outperforming rating and a $270 12-month price target on Tuesday.
Wedbush said some potential risks to attaining its price target and rating include increasing competition, pricing, technology shifts, and macroeconomic conditions, as well as Apple’s product strategy in China and Apple’s ability to ramp up its software and services business, among other factors.
Wamsi Mohan, a research analyst at BofA Securities, gave Apple a buy rating, according to a Wednesday note.
He said BofA upped its PO to $270 from $260 on 32x calendar-year 2026 EPS estimate due to Apple’s Pro model with 256GB starting at $1,099 compared to last year’s 128GB model that started at $999.
BofA Securities increased its revenue and EPS estimate for fiscal year 2026 from $446 billion with a $8.03 EPS to $448 billion with a $8.05 EPS, Mohan said, adding a calendar-year 2026 EPS estimate of $8.40, moving up from $8.37.
In a Thursday note, JPMorgan analysts gave Apple an overweight rating.
Jefferies analysts in a Tuesday note gave a hold rating with a $205.82 price target.
The iPhone 17 lineup includes an enhanced display, better durability, increased battery life, an improved camera, and a minimum of 256GB storage.
“From a GM perspective, the increase in base storage and camera upgrades across the lineup could be offset by the move to Apple’s in-house modem (C1X) for the Air, the N1 in-house networking chip for all models (supports Wi-Fi 7, Bluetooth 6, and Thread), the move back to aluminum for Pro models, and slightly higher starting price for the Air/Pro models,” Mohan said.
Wedbush analysts said that because of “the complex tariff environment” Apple raised the cost of the iPhone 17 Pro by $100 to $1,099 as it continues to produce the majority of U.S. sold iPhones in India.
“Despite modestly higher iPhone prices — primarily a function of eliminating low-end storage SKUs — trade-in values and U.S. wireless carrier promotions are more favorable Y/Y, which actually makes the iPhone 17 family more affordable Y/Y, a potential tailwind to iPhone upgrade rates,” Morgan Stanley said.
It added that “Apple kept like-for-like iPhone 17 pricing largely unchanged with last year’s iPhone 16 models, while reducing pricing for legacy models by $100 Y/Y, similar to last year.”
Morgan Stanley forecasts the iPhone 17 lineup will account for 66% of fiscal year 2026 shipments flat year-over-year.
Wedbush estimates that about 325 million out of 1.5 billion iPhone users worldwide haven’t upgraded their phones in over four years, leading to an “upgrade opportunity” for Apple “with China front and center.”
Morgan Stanley analysts said they were “more impressed” with the look and capabilities of the iPhone Air than they previously expected — although they think it’s unlikely to perform well in China.
“[We] could see this being a device that helps to improve iPhone upgrade rates over the next 12 months, though it remains a device unlikely to sell well in China given it features eSIM vs. China’s strict rules around physical SIM cards,” they said.
“The company’s focus on much-improved internal product efficiencies balanced with bold redesigns and practical new features interwoven with Apple Intelligence sets Apple up to launch towards an eventual super cycle over the next 12 to 18 months while the company looks to improve its AI strategy that’s holding the stock back,” Wedbush said.
“Apple can position itself to lead in delivering AI at the edge, and increased use of its own silicon (A19/A19 Pro chips, C1X modem) and AI hardware enhancements (neural accelerators in each GPU core, thermal management) should help in that effort,” Mohan said.
But Morgan Stanley analysts don’t expect any major Apple Intelligence announcements until the end of the year, when they said it’s “possible” Apple Intelligence gets approved in China.
“The most significant Apple Intelligence update is still likely to come in March-June 2026, when we expect a revamped Apple Intelligence, likely powered by a combination of Apple technology, and partner (Google Gemini, OpenAI, or Anthropic) technology,” they added.
Apple shares popped ahead of the keynote but slipped as the event wrapped, down about 1.7% an hour after the event ended. Its stock fell around 3% in the morning after the event.
“As in past years, shares were down after the event, but historically have recovered 30-60 days post event,” Mohan said.
Apple’s stock closed up 1.43% on Thursday.
— Shannon Carroll contributed to this article.
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