3 market experts tell us why they’re skeptical about retail traders’ favorite meme stock

• Opendoor is the breakout meme stock of the season.

• Hedge fund manager Eric Jackson has activated an army of retail traders who are piling into the stock.

• Three market pros tell us why they’re skeptical of the rally.

The rise of Opendoor Technologies was the biggest story in retail-trader circles over the summer.

Since the start of July when hedge fund founder Eric Jackson posted his bullish outlook, shares of the online real estate company have surged more than 1,600%, rising from less than $1 per share to a high of $10.28 on Friday.

Jackson flagged the stock as having potential to become 100-bagger, comparing it to Carvana, the ailing used car dealer that he helped revive in 2023. Jackson set a price target for Opendoor at $82 per share.

While retail traders are definitely onboard, some institutional investors don’t share Jackson’s optimism.

William Reid Culp III, founder and president of TAGStone Capital, thinks Jackson’s price target is highly aggressive, given the company’s current fundamentals.

“To reach $82, the company would need to trade closer to 10x revenues, a level typically reserved for profitable, high-growth SaaS firms rather than capital-intensive housing platforms,” he told Business Insider.

Culp said that revenue for Opendoor has fallen in recent years, declining from $15.6 billion in 2022 to $5.1 billion in 2024. He added that its earnings are still negative and that consensus estimates still show losses per share through 2026.

While he said that retail trading momentum could trigger a random rally or short squeeze, similar to those that propelled other meme stocks such as Gamestop or AMC Entertainment, Culp still thinks Opendoor isn’t likely to achieve revenue that would support Jackson’s price target

“For Opendoor to fundamentally justify $82 per share, either revenue would need to grow many multiples above today’s levels or investors would need to ascribe it a dramatically higher multiple than is historically typical for this business model.”

Daniel Bustamante, CIO of Bustamante Capital Management, is significantly more bearish on Opendoor. In his view, the dynamic is similar to that of GameStop’s meme stock rise.

“If this were in fact a bonafide turn around then we would see a road-map laid out by management detailing the strategy,” he said.

“This may trade higher but it will do so on pure momentum from unknowing retail investors, games in the underlying options markets, and the idea that the ‘greater fool’ theory works.”

Bob Lang, chief options analyst at Explosive Options, is slightly more optimistic, though still doubtful of the $82 target. He noted that while Opendor stock has benefited from retail interest, broader economic trends may render the rally unsustainable.

“If the wheels come off the economy, investors will no longer listen to sage investors, rather just look for the exit as stocks like Open will get the door slammed in their face,” he stated.

Lang acknowledged that if the housing market does start to recover in the near future, Opendoor could easily benefit from the flux in selling activity. However, he added that the company’s share price is no longer cheap.

“With a market cap of $7 billion and a revenue run rate in the single digits [Opendoor] has much to prove,” he said.

Additionally, Lange’s optimism about Opendoor hinges on interest rate cuts spurring substantial housing growth, an outcome that some commentators say is unlikely in the near term.

Read the original article on Business Insider