Fed needs to be decisive in fending off job market risks

By Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve may be late in supporting the labor market and could need to speed the pace of rate cuts if demand conditions weaken and businesses begin to lay off workers, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said on Tuesday.

In remarks that laid out the case for putting full weight on potential problems in the job market and largely dismissing inflation risks, Bowman said the slowdown in hiring is such that “it is time for the Committee to act decisively and proactively to address decreasing labor market dynamism and emerging signs of fragility.”

“We are at serious risk of already being behind the curve in addressing deteriorating labor market conditions. Should these conditions continue, I am concerned that we will need to adjust policy at a faster pace and to a larger degree going forward,” Bowman said. “If demand conditions do not improve, businesses may need to begin to lay off workers.”

An appointee of President Donald Trump and mentioned as a possible candidate for Fed chair, Bowman’s support for last week’s quarter-point rate cut stood in contrast to that of new Governor Stephen Miran, on leave from the Trump administration, who dissented in favor of a half-point reduction.

But Bowman said it was important to her that the accompanying monetary policy statement pointed to the likelihood of further cuts given rising risks to the job market.

“Assuming the economy evolves as I expect, last week’s action should be the first step to bring the federal funds rate back to its neutral level,” Bowman said in remarks to the Kentucky Bankers Association. Policymakers were divided over the need for further cuts, but at the median anticipated two more quarter-point reductions this year.

More than a dozen Fed officials are speaking this week in an ongoing debate about how fast and how far to cut interest rates at a potential inflection point for the U.S. job market. Inflation also remains a concern, with central bankers trying to find a path for rates that will ensure inflation returns to their 2% target without a serious blow to economic growth or unemployment.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks later on Tuesday. On Monday several officials said they were still cautious about further rate cuts while inflation remains nearly a percentage point above target; Miran said he would cut rates aggressively to account for how policy changes under Trump are changing demographic, trade and inflation dynamics.

The Fed last week cut its benchmark interest rate a quarter of a percentage point, adding to the full percentage point of cuts approved late last year. It is the first such move since Trump’s current term began, and marked a turn in the Fed’s thinking that put more weight on developing risks to the job market.