More housing markets are shifting toward buyers. It’s not enough to make them want to buy.

More housing markets are shifting toward buyers. It’s not enough to make them want to buy.

More housing markets are shifting toward buyers. It’s not enough to make them want to buy.

As the year draws to a close, homebuyers are gaining ground. Mortgage rates are hovering near year-to-date lows, and in a growing number of metro areas, market conditions now outright favor buyers.

The only problem? Many of these newfound buyer’s markets lack buyers.

As of October, sellers outnumbered buyers nationwide by 37%, according to Redfin, creating the strongest buyer’s market since at least 2013. Buyers are in control when they have more inventory to choose from, which, in turn, helps limit home price appreciation. But despite these conditions, buyers, feeling stymied by high costs and economic worries, are exiting the market faster than sellers.

The shift underscores how small affordability gains aren’t enough to unfreeze a housing market where prices are more than 50% higher than pre-pandemic levels and mortgage rates are above 6%. At these levels, many aspiring buyers, especially first-timers, remain effectively shut out. As a result, home sales this year are on track to spend their third straight year near 30-year lows.

“Buyers are just feeling the pain of many years of home price increases, on top of interest rates still in the 6% range,” said Molly Boesel, senior principal economist at property data provider Cotality.

Read more: Is it a buyer’s market or a seller’s market? How to tell the difference.

Even though buyers stay hesitant, they’re gaining leverage in more parts of the country. Buyers have long enjoyed the biggest upper hand in southern cities like Houston, San Antonio, Nashville, and Jacksonville, Fla., which have prioritized new building and seen their population growth slow since the pandemic. As of October, cities like Cincinnati and Milwaukee have also transitioned to become buyer’s markets, according to Zillow data.

The listings giant now considers 19 major metro areas to be tilted toward buyers, up from nine a year ago.

Buyers are usually considered to have more power when it would take six months or more to sell all active listings on the market, while markets tilt toward sellers when there’s under four months of supply.

Greg Langhaim, a real estate agent and owner of Go Idaho Group in Meridian, Idaho, said buyers in the Boise area have turned hesitant this year, even though the region’s inventory remains constrained enough to be considered a seller’s market.

“We have all these buyers who are sitting because they’re doing the math, and it’s just not adding up,” Langhaim said. “There’s a lot of uncertainty, and our wages aren’t matching up with the prices.”

In an effort to bring buyers in and better compete with the new construction homes that have proliferated as the city expands, sellers have been slashing prices and, recently, offering concessions such as closing cost assistance. A few years earlier, that would have been unthinkable, he said.

Unhappy with current conditions, buyers and sellers alike are increasingly opting to exit the market altogether as the housing market enters its seasonal slowdown.

The number of active sellers dropped 0.5% from September to October of this year, according to Redfin data. The drop in buyers was even steeper, at 1.7%, and brought the total number of buyers to 1.44 million, the lowest level since April 2020, when the early days of the pandemic had all but halted home sales.

Sarena Tseng, 27, managed to stick out a tough market and purchase her first home near Austin, Texas, for $320,000 earlier this year. Getting there took years of savings and a first-time homebuyer credit to help lower her up-front costs.

Read more: How to buy a house: A guide for first-time home buyers in 2025

Austin is among the regions that have tilted most in buyers’ favor in recent years. Builders flooded the Texas capital with new homes, and a wave of COVID-era moving slowed, boosting inventory. Median home prices in Austin have fallen from peaks, but remain nearly 50% higher than they were in 2019: Still challenging for many buyers.

Tseng is happy with her purchase, which helped her reach a longtime goal and freed her of the pressure of chasing down the best rent deals each year. But given today’s market realities, she doesn’t recommend her path to everyone her age.

“For a lot of young people, not to discourage them, but it’s probably not the most financially smart thing to do,” she said.

Her advice to first-time buyers unsure of what, if anything, they can afford is to understand the pros and cons of homeownership, how mortgage rates can affect purchasing power, and to make sure they’ll still have enough money left over to budget for inevitable unexpected expenses.

“I think people should make sure that they still have a financial safety net,” Tseng said. “You never know what is going to happen.”

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