Oil Drops, Stocks Set for Jittery Day on Venezuela: Markets Wrap-amtomessage

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2026-01-05

Oil Drops, Stocks Set for Jittery Day on Venezuela: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Global financial markets are bracing for a skittish trading day after the US ousted Venezuela’s president, triggering a fresh flashpoint that may stoke geopolitical tensions and curb the flow of oil from the region.

Brent crude oil fell as much as 1.2% to $60 a barrel as trading started in Asia. US equity-index futures and Australian shares both opened 0.1% higher. The dollar was mixed against its major peers, while Treasury futures were little changed. Mexico’s peso was indicated weaker in initial quotations in a proxy response to the developments.

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Precious metals, a hot corner of the market recently, rose with gold and silver gaining. But crude will be in the spotlight after the capture of Nicolás Maduro over the weekend, clouding the outlook for supply from the OPEC member.

Although Venezuela isn’t a top-20 crude producer, any persistent increase in oil prices and its inflationary impact on economies pose a risk for markets. Wall Street strategists are generally optimistic about stocks this year, but escalating tensions stand to test the resilience of global equities after their best annual return since 2017.

“The capture of Maduro can create a short-term risk-off sentiment in Asian markets, mainly through higher oil prices and a rise in geopolitical risk premium,” said Jung In Yun, chief executive officer at Fibonacci Asset Management Global in Singapore. “We don’t think the situation will escalate into a sustained oil shock, and this should be a short-lived sentiment drag.”

Early signals suggest that the global oil market will largely take the move in its stride.

Venezuela’s oil infrastructure wasn’t affected after a series of US attacks in Caracas and other states, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Key facilities such as Jose port, the Amuay refinery and oil areas in the Orinoco Belt are still operational, the people said.

The US attack on Venezuela will though likely trigger a short-term oil price gain and a shift to haven assets such as gold, according to Kim Doo-un, an analyst at Hana Securities in Seoul. The dollar is also likely to strengthen in the near term due to heightened uncertainties, Kim wrote in a note.

Investors will also be keeping an eye on US Treasury yields, which can weigh on stocks if they rise too quickly. The 10-year yield was up two basis points to 4.19% at the close on Friday, while the 30-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.87% after touching its highest level since September.

The question is whether events in Venezuela add to the appeal of US debt by fanning risk or diminish demand for them by increasing concerns over inflation or US fiscal policy.

Having attacked Venezuela and deposed its president, Nicolas Maduro, US President Donald Trump now says he has big plans for the country’s oil industry and its vast reserves.Source: Bloomberg

“From a market perspective, we would be careful not to over-trade” when the market opens on Monday, Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research, wrote in a note. “A major use of land troops is highly unlikely. As such, fiscal outlays are not going to be affected and bond yields should not rise.”

Maduro’s arrest assures a “lively start” to Washington’s policies as a factor in macro risk analysis, said Kim Wallace of 22V Research, in a note dated Sunday. The more pertinent question is whether 2026 policy upheaval presents tangible risks or opportunities to market participants, or a temporary risk flare soon to fade.

“Investors’ primary risk is what comes next from DC,” Wallace said. “The unpredictable path of events in Venezuela and the White House likely cap related risk-taking.”

Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson said modest additional interest-rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026, but conditioned that outcome on a benign outlook for the economy.

US stock investors opened 2026 on cautious footing Friday, lifting benchmarks modestly on the year’s first trading day. Shares in Asia had their best start to a new year since 2012, helped by technology companies.

“Equities will likely look through the headlines even if volatility rises, with rates and US specific catalysts ultimately driving market direction in 2026,” said Dave Mazza, chief executive officer of Roundhill Investments.

Key economic data will also shape the week ahead. In addition to the December jobs report, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will issue on Wednesday figures for November job openings, quits and layoffs. The Institute for Supply Management’s December surveys of manufacturers and service providers will also offer clues about employment in those industries.

At week’s end, the US government will report on October housing starts, while the University of Michigan issues its preliminary January consumer sentiment index.

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