Trump said tariffs would bring factories ‘roaring back.’ So why are manufacturing jobs on the decline?

Just before President Trump announced his sweeping tariffs on “Liberation Day” last spring, the White House celebrated February’s gain of 10,000 manufacturing jobs, noting that more than 100,000 positions in the sector had been shed in the final year of the Biden administration.

“Manufacturing is Roaring Back,” the White House website declared.

But such gains were short-lived. Manufacturing jobs began to slide again in May and haven’t stopped declining. 72,000 manufacturing positions have been lost since April’s tariffs announcement, including 8,000 roles in December alone.

What gives?

“What we’re seeing is certainly a continuation of trends that began before the Trump administration,” Gordon Hanson, an economist and professor in urban policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, told Yahoo Finance. “But the tariffs haven’t helped.”

Indeed, millions of manufacturing jobs have disappeared from the US since 1979 amid a combination of “powerful” trends, Hanson said, including automation, “the continuing effects of the China trade, and the fact that the US has not done a lot of the things you need to do to restore manufacturing prowess.”

Tariffs are hardly the solution to those problems, Hanson said — though Trump insists otherwise. He vowed in April that jobs and factories would “come roaring back into our country” as levies on imports boosted locally produced goods.

While tariffs do reduce import competition, they can also increase the cost of key components for domestic manufacturers. Take US electric vehicle plants that rely on batteries made with rare earth elements imported from overseas, for instance. Some parts simply aren’t made in the United States.

Read more: What are rare earth minerals, and why are they important?

As for sectors that had already largely left the US, like apparel and textile manufacturing, “a lot of those industries are just substantially gone,” Hanson said, meaning there aren’t many existing factories where production could be ramped up and hires could be made.

Do you have a story about navigating the job market? Reach out to Emma Ockerman here.

Manufacturing is hardly the only industry to add few workers these days: Job growth remains paltry across the board, and what hiring does exist is largely being driven by the healthcare and social assistance sectors.

Then there’s the uncertainty caused by the administration’s whipsawing tariff policies, which can lead employers to pull back on hiring as they await greater clarity.

“If Trump just picked a number — whatever it was, 10% or 15% to 20% — we might all say it’s bad, I’d say it’s bad, I think most economists would say it’s bad,” Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, said. “But the worst thing is there’s no certainty about it.”