Inflation expected to remain above Fed target in November as economic data schedule gets back on track

Inflation data set for release Thursday morning is expected to show price increases remain above the Federal Reserve’s target in the final major piece of US economic data released on an altered schedule due to the government shutdown.

The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday and is expected to show headline prices rose 3.1% over the prior year, according to data from Bloomberg.

“Core CPI,” which strips out the often-volatile food and energy categories, is expected to rise 3.1% from last year.

In September, the last month for which there is inflation data, both the headline and core CPI measures rose 3% from a year ago.

Thursday’s report will mark the first official inflation read since September, after the BLS opted to cancel the October report in light of the US government shutdown. This means November’s reading will not have month-on-month comparisons for the headline and core CPI figures.

Read more: How to protect your savings against inflation

This should also mark the final time major economic data, notably the monthly jobs report and inflation data, is published on an altered schedule following the government shutdown that lasted 43 days earlier this year.

The November jobs report was released on Tuesday, showing more jobs were created last month than expected, while the unemployment rate hit a four-year high. The December jobs report is set for release on Jan. 9, 2026, returning to its typical spot on a Friday morning.

“Inflation is still above target … but this should be temporary,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial. “As demand cools in the coming months, pricing pressures should ease, giving investors some breathing room.”

Economists at Bank of America wrote in a report ahead of the release that goods inflation should “remain sticky owing to tariffs,” while services “should be softer driven in part by health insurance.”

This push-pull dynamic within the inflation data is likely to keep the Fed on the sidelines at the end of its January meeting, with traders currently pricing in a roughly 25% chance the central bank cuts rates next month.

Last week, the Fed’s forecasts suggested it would cut rates only one more time in 2026 after cutting rates by 0.25% at three straight meetings to end 2025.

Read more: How jobs, inflation, and the Fed are all related

Jake Conley is a breaking news reporter covering US equities for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @byjakeconley or email him at jake.conley@yahooinc.com.